If You Think the Housing Market Will Slow This Winter, Think Again.

Supply no where near demand…

From the opportunity to take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates to changing homeowner needs, Americans have more motivation than ever to buy a home. According to the experts, buyers are making moves right now, creating an unseasonably strong housing market for this time of year.

As we wrap up the fall season and move into the winter months, here’s a look at what several industry leaders have to say about the continued momentum in the current market, and what it means as we head into the early part of next year.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR)

“This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.” 

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American

“So far in November, purchase applications point to another strong month in sales. Still low rates and demographic demand support this strength, even as affordability and inventory headwinds remain.”

The M Report

“The demand for housing in the United States has reached a fever pitch, a trend that opposes the norm of this time of the year when the market cools as the winter months set in.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

“Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market’s sails.”

What does this mean for the winter housing market?

Buyers are actively in the market, and they’re competing for homes to purchase. With the momentum coming out of this fall, all signs point to the winter housing market picking up steam, making it much busier than in a more typical year. And as we’ve seen in so many ways, 2020 and 2021 were anything but typical in real estate. It looks like 2022 may be joining that list before we know it.

Bottom Line

If you think the housing market will slow down this winter, think again. Whether you’re thinking of buying a home, selling your house, or both – let’s connect to determine if this winter is your best time to make a move too.

Home Sales About To Surge? We May See a Winter Like Never Before.

Like most industries, residential real estate has a seasonality to it. For example, toy stores sell more toys in October, November, and December than they do in any other three-month span throughout the year. More cars are sold in the U.S. during the second quarter (April, May, and June) than in any other quarter of the year.

Real estate is very similar. The number of homes sold in the spring is almost always much greater than at any other time of the year. It’s even labeled as the spring buying season. Historically, the number of buyers and listings for sale significantly increase in the spring and remains strong throughout the summer. Once fall sets in, the number of buyers and sellers typically drops off.

Last year, however, that seasonality didn’t happen. The outbreak of the virus and subsequent slowing of the economy limited sales during the spring market. These sales were pushed back later in the year, and last fall and winter saw a dramatic increase in home sales over previous years. The only thing that held the market back was the extremely limited supply of homes for sale.

What About This Winter?

Some experts thought we’d return to the industry’s normal seasonality this winter with both the number of purchasers and houses available for sale falling off. However, data now shows that neither of those situations will likely occur. Buyer demand is still extremely strong, and it appears we may soon see a somewhat uncharacteristic increase in the number of homes coming to the market.

Buyer Demand Remains Strong

The latest Showing Index from ShowingTime, which tracks the average number of monthly showings on available homes, indicates buyer activity was slightly lower than at the same time last year but much higher than any of the three previous years (see chart below):A report from realtor.com confirms buying activity remains strong in the existing home sales market:

“New housing data shows 2021’s feverish home sales pace broke a yearly record in October, . . . with last month marking the eighth straight month of buyers snatching up homes more quickly than the fastest pace in previous years. . . .”

Buyer activity for newly constructed homes is also very strong. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Zonda, recently reported that Stuart Miller, the Executive Chairman of Lennar, one of the nation’s largest home builders, said this about demand:

“There is still a great deal of demand at our sales centers with people lining up and not enough supply.”

The only question heading into this winter is whether the number of listings available could come close to meeting this buyer demand. We may have just received the answer to that question.

Sellers Are About To List – Right Now

Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.

Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said:

“The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.”

Here are some highlights in the report:

Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

• 65% – Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
• 93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
• 36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
• 36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

• 33% – Have realized they want different home features
• 37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
• 32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
• 23% – Are looking for a home office

Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now is the time to have a heart-to-heart conversation with a real estate professional in your market, as things are about to change in an unexpected way.

Housing Challenge or Housing Opportunity? It Depends.

The biggest challenge in real estate today is the lack of available homes for sale. The low housing supply has caused homes throughout the country to appreciate at a much faster rate than what we’ve experienced historically.

There are many reasons for the limited number of homes on the market, but as you can see in the graph below, we’re well below where we’ve been for most of the past 10 years. Today, across the country, there is only a 2.4-month supply of homes available for sale.

The Opportunity 

This lack of homes for sale is creating a challenge for many buyers who are growing frustrated in their search. On the other hand, this is a huge opportunity for sellers as low supply is driving up home values. According to CoreLogic, the average home has appreciated by more than $50,000 over the past year. And for many homeowners, that’s opening new doors as they re-think their needs and use their equity to move up or downsize.

According to Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“The average homeowner with a mortgage has more than $200,000 in home equity as of mid-2021.”

Today, many sellers are taking advantage of low interest rates and the equity they have in their homes to make a move.

Bottom Line

The biggest challenge in real estate is the lack of homes for sale, but this challenge is also an opportunity for sellers. If you’re thinking about selling your house, let’s connect to start the process.
« There Are More Homes Available Now than There Were This Spring

Would you move if it was to your advantage?

A much-repeated investment strategy is to buy low and sell high. Some people who purchased around the financial crisis of 2010-2012 are poised to make considerable profits.

The median home price in America is now $295,300 up from $155,600 in February 2012 which calculates close to an 8% annual increase. The median equity that homeowners have earned during the same period is $140,000.

Inventory is in short supply while demand is high which has caused prices to increase. Factors that continue to contribute to the lower number of homes on the market are record low mortgage rates and housing starts have not met expectations since the Great Recession. This year, people spending more time at home due to the pandemic has caused some people to rethink their current living space which has added to the demand.

Some experts believe that a significant portion of the workforce will continue to work from home after the pandemic has passed making the motivation for a larger home more of a long-term effect.

The median days on the market for a listing is 24 which is a direct result of the low inventory and heightened competition. Sold homes are receiving an average of three offers with some situations ending in a bidding war. This is an advantage for a seller who can not only realize a higher sales price but also accelerate a move into another home.

While the pandemic has certainly wreaked havoc on some businesses like the hospitality industry, real estate has continued to boom. Seven out of ten sales contracts are closing on-time which can give sellers a great deal of confidence.

Taxpayers can exclude up to $500,000 of qualified gain if they are married and up to $250,000 if single. Some homeowners are taking the profit from their homes while at the top of the market, reserving part of their equity for investments, and purchasing another home with a higher loan-to-value mortgage at the incredibly low mortgage rates now available.

If you’re curious to see if this might work for you, contact us at (859) 312-7599 to find out what your home is worth now and what homes are available that may fit your lifestyle better. Download our Sellers Guide.

Debt-to-Income Ratio Affects Approval & the Interest Rate

Debt-to-Income ratio is a tool that lenders use to qualify buyers for a mortgage and is an important factor in determining loan approval. It provides an indication of the amount of debt that a potential borrower is obligated to in relation to how much income they have.

Total monthly debts are determined by adding the normal and recurring monthly debt payments such as monthly housing costs, car payments, minimum credit card payments, personal loan payments, student loans, child support, alimony, and other things.

By dividing the monthly income into the monthly debt, you arrive at a percentage of the monthly income. Lenders actually look at two different ratios commonly called the front-end and the back-end.

The front-end ratio is the proposed total house payment including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance if required, and homeowner association fees. Lenders generally don’t want these expenses to be more than 28% of the monthly gross income.

The back-end ratio includes the same items that are in the front-end ratio plus any other monthly obligations like the ones mentioned earlier. Lenders prefer to see this ratio not to exceed 36% of monthly gross income but some lenders may extend that to 43%. Borrowers obtaining an FHA mortgage might also be allowed an even higher back-end ratio.

If a borrower had $8,000 monthly gross income, their proposed house payment should not exceed $2,240 or 28% of their monthly gross income. Then, their house payment and monthly debt should ideally not exceed $2,880 or 36% of their monthly gross income.

For the sake of an example, let’s say that their monthly debt was $900. That would only leave $1,980 for the maximum house payment. The monthly debt became a limiting factor affecting the house payment.

In addition to determining whether the buyer qualifies for the mortgage, it could affect the interest rate. Having good credit and having the proper ratios can result in being approved for a mortgage. On the other hand, if the debt is on the upper side of an acceptable range, the lender may charge a higher interest rate for the addition risk of a marginal borrower.

While the math is not difficult to come up with your ratios, it is not necessarily a do-it-yourself project. A trusted lending professional can assess your situation and give you an accurate picture of what price home you can afford and the rate you can expect to pay.

Both things are important to know before you start looking at homes and especially before you contract for one. All lenders are not the same. Call me to get a recommendation of a trusted mortgage professional who specializes in the type of mortgage you want. Download this FREE Buyers Guide.

Buyer’s Closing Costs

Ideally, each party will pay their own closing costs associated with the purchase and the sale of a home, but they can be negotiable based on lender requirements and market conditions.

The fees are usually paid at the settlement and will be itemized on the closing statement. Buyers should be aware of them before contracting for a home. If a mortgage is involved, the lender will want to verify that the borrower has ample funds available at closing to pay for them.

Buyer’s closing costs can range between two to five percent of the sales price. The real estate agents should be able to give you an estimate of what a buyer can expect. The most accurate estimate will come from the lender at the time the loan application is made. They may or may not include other fees that will be charged to buyers by the title or escrow company.

Buyers are required to be provided a standard Closing Disclosure form at least three business days before the loan closing date. This document will include the loan terms, estimated monthly payments, loan fees and other charges. This can be compared to the loan estimate provided by the lender when the application was made.

Fees connected to a mortgage

Loan origination fee … This is the lender’s fee for processing the mortgage application. It can vary in amount but typically, it can be one percent of the mortgage amount. It may be possible to negotiate this fee into the rate of the mortgage.

VA funding fee … This is a fee charged to the veteran for closing the loan. It can be paid in cash or rolled into mortgage. The amount is based on the status of the veteran, their down payment and whether they have had a VA loan before.

Appraisal … This is a fee paid for a licensed appraiser to determine the value of the property. It validates that the mortgage will not exceed the purchase price and that the buyer has enough down payment based on the type of mortgage applied for.

Attorney fee … This fee is charged to ensure that the legal documents are drawn properly so the lender will have an enforceable mortgage. It is not for legal representation of the buyer.

Discount points … A point is one percent of the mortgage. These fees are considered prepaid interest and can be used to adjust the interest rate on the mortgage.

Lender’s title insurance … This coverage insures that the lender has an enforceable lien from title claims on the property. This policy is usually issued in connection with an owner’s title policy and is priced separately.

Mortgage insurance … Most loans made in excess of 80% of loan to value require mortgage insurance to protect the lender from loss if the property must be foreclosed on. There is no mortgage insurance requirement on VA loans. FHA mortgage insurance premium has two parts. There is an up-front charge of 1.75% of loan amount and then, a monthly amount which is added to the payment. Conventional loans usually collect the first month’s premium in advance and subsequent amounts are rolled into the mortgage payment.

Recording fees … These are fees that are for filing the legal documents with the municipal or county recorders. The documents would include the mortgage and the deed.

Survey fees … This fee is necessary, based on requirements of the lender, to verify property lines, shared fences and driveways and to identify any other encumbrances.

Underwriting fee … This is a separate fee that covers the research and determination that the entire loan package meets the lender’s requirements.

Fees required by mortgage for escrow account

Property taxes … Lenders can require two to three months taxes to be held in escrow so that there will be enough to pay them in full 60 to 90 days before they are due.

Property insurance … Insurance is paid in advance and the annual premium will be due at closing. The lender further requires one additional month’s amount so that one month prior to the anniversary date, the premium can be paid for the renewal.

Flood insurance … The lender may require flood insurance on the property based on their assessment of the location in a flood zone or proximity to a flood zone.

Fees connected to purchase of a home

Settlement fee … This is the buyer’s portion of the fee paid to the title or escrow company, or attorney who handles the closing of the sale.

HOA Fee … Home Owner Association fees are usually paid in advance by the owner. They are prorated at closing for the amount paid that the seller does not benefit from.

Owner’s Title insurance … This coverage insures that the buyer, the new owner, received clear and marketable title from the seller. It will protect the new owners’ interests should they be challenged. Even though it may not be required, it is recommended.

Pest inspection … A pest inspection by a licensed exterminator can be required by a buyer to determine if there are active termites or termite damage, dry rot or another pest infestation.

Property inspection … A home inspection conducted by a professional can be required to determine structural integrity of the property as well as all the systems in the home. It can include but not be limited to plumbing, electrical, roof, heating and air conditioning, appliances and other things.

Title search … Sometimes, title companies waive this fee when an owner’s title policy is issued. It can be customary that a separate fee is charged in addition to the premium for the title insurance.

Transfer taxes … When government taxes are required, these fees must be collected.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is a U.S. government agency that makes sure banks, lenders and other financial companies treat the public fairly. You can download a Closing Disclosure Explainer from their website.

Where Did the Assumptions Go?

Mortgage assumptions have not been a practical matter for the last 30 years because mortgage rates have been on a steady decline. Even if the seller had a rate lower than the current rate, the new purchaser must qualify to assume the loan.

In the case of conventional loans, the lender has the right to increase the rate to the current rate which neutralizes the reason for assuming the loan. This change took place in the early 1980’s when lenders added due on sale provisions so lower rates could not be assumed.

FHA and VA loans can be assumed at the existing rate with the provision that the purchaser qualifies for the loan. This could be an advantage if the rate on the loan to be assumed was lower than the current mortgage rate for FHA or VA and the buyer is going to owner-occupy. Unfortunately, investors are prohibited from assuming FHA and VA loans.

Besides the obvious advantage of a lower rate which would have a lower payment, the closing costs are lower on an assumption than originating a new loan. Another benefit is that the loan will be further into the amortization schedule than starting a new 30-year loan which means it would be retired sooner while the equity is also growing faster.

The current rates are close to one-percent lower than they were a year ago, so, assumptions are probably not a method of financing a home purchase in the near future. The Freddie Mac forecast expects rates to remain low, possibly at a yearly average of 3.0% in 2021.

Mortgage rates have remained low since the Great Recession even though experts anticipated they would start trending upward. If rates increase, especially rapidly, assumptions of FHA and VA loans could easily be a tool that buyers and real estate professional alike will be employing. For sellers with an assumable loan at a below market rate, it could add to the value of the property as well as the marketability.

Vacation Home Sales Up 44%

Vacation home sales are up 44% year-over-year according to the National Association of REALTORS® based on sales during the July to September period. Not only are the number of units up, but they are also selling faster than in previous years.

On a national basis, 72% of existing vacation homes closed in October were on the market for less than one month.

The increased desirability and affordability of vacation homes, according to the National Association of Realtors, seems to be influenced by the pandemic and low mortgage rates. The ability to work from home seems to be contributing to this increase.

Freddie Mac reports the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 2.83% in October compared to the aver commitment rate for all of 2019 which was 3.94%.

There may also be a safety factor involved with these decisions to purchase vacation or second homes. Contagious diseases flourish more in highly populated areas like big cities and suburbs. The locations of the vacation or second homes are generally in areas with less residents.

The slower pace from the city may also add to the appeal of considering second homes. Proximity to the mountains or water, whether it be the ocean, rivers or lakes, have become a lure to people who realize that if where they work doesn’t matter, they can select a place where they want to be.

Historically, Americans on the east coast left the cities during the 1793 yellow fever epidemic. The same migration took place in the mid-19th century during three waves of Cholera and Scarlet fever.

Trends have yet to determine whether some of these new vacation home buyers may consider moving permanently or may reconsider the decision after the pandemic. Currently, it does have broad-based appeal and offers a lot of flexibility to owners who can afford it.

Home Inspections

A home inspector is another key professional involved in a real estate transaction. Many times, the sales contract will have a provision that allows the purchaser to have inspections made to discover issues that are not readily apparent or have not been disclosed by the seller.

It is important to have a qualified individual perform the inspection. Regardless of whether a license is required, buyers should ask about the inspector’s experience, training, years in business and if they are familiar with the area and type of property involved.

Membership in professional associations can indicate an inspector’s commitment to education and training. References from both customers and agents are helpful and may be more meaningful. You are encouraged to call the references, especially, if you are concerned about any specific areas.

Errors and Omission insurance is intended to cover mistakes made during an inspection. It would be good to find out if the inspector has this type of insurance and how mistakes are handled or if omissions are made.

Find out exactly what is included in the inspection and what will trigger the inspector to recommend that you get an opinion by a specialist. They should be able to provide you with a sample report so you can see the detail with which the items will be explained. Ask if items that need attention will also be documented with pictures.

Some inspectors will allow you to accompany them during the inspection. They will be able to point out their concerns and answer any questions you may have about different things. An inspection can take two to three hours depending on the size of the property.

Generally, there is a time allotted in the sales contract for the inspections to be made and not completing them in a timely fashion could waive your right to use the contingency. Your real estate professional will be able to guide you through this process.

First Things First

If you are making a particular meal for the first time, it is essential to have a recipe so that it turns out the way it should. Knowing the ingredients and preparation can guide you through the process.

Buying a home is really no different than making a new recipe. There are certain things that need to be done, many of which should occur in a particular order to save time, money, effort and disappointment.

Your first inclination may be to start searching the Internet for homes and schedule some showings or possibly visit open houses. Even though this is very gratifying, it shouldn’t be done until you have gone through the preliminaries.

Buying a home for the first-time implies you haven’t been through the process before and even though, you may have a rough idea of what needs to be done, selecting the right agent in the beginning will give you the benefit of years of personal and professional experience that can help you avoid some of the common mistakes made when buying a home.

This agent can direct you to find the other team members that are required like the lender, title company, inspectors and others. Each member of the team has an important role to play that if not done correctly, could cause delays and possibly, jeopardize the transaction.

An important step is getting pre-approved so that you’ll know exactly what price mortgage and home you’ll qualify for. This may even allow you to lock-in a mortgage rate before you contract for a home. The pre-approval could also prove very helpful in negotiating with the seller by removing some of the doubt in their mind regarding an unknown buyer. Another advantage to pre-approval is that if you are competing with multiple offers, you have the advantage of being more of a known commodity.

You’ll need to assemble some documents for the lender including pay stubs from the past two months, W-2’s from last year, proof of additional income, tax returns for the past two years, bank statements for the last three months, list of all open credit accounts and balances, copy of driver’s license and history of residence for past two years.

Buying a home is one of the most important decisions in your life and it should be done with care and research. When all the things are done in the right order, finding the “right” home is just like following a recipe. For more information, download this Buyers Guide that includes great information to help you through the process.